Fitch confirme à GuarantCo la note IFS de ‘AA-‘, perspective stable

Fitch Ratings-Francfort/Londres-08 mai 2019 : Fitch Ratings a confirmé à GuarantCo Ltd la notation de la force financière des assureurs (IFS - Insurer Financial Strength) de « AA- » (haute qualité). Perspective stable.

FACTEURS DE NOTATION CLÉS

Cette confirmation reflète la santé financière des sponsors de GuarantCo, ainsi que les « solides » capacités de l’entreprise à capitaliser et gérer les risques, et son faible risque en matière d’investissement.

L’évaluation de Fitch portant sur les capacités et la volonté des sponsors de soutenir GuarantCo a contribué à améliorer par deux points le profil du crédit autonome de GuarantCo. Toutefois, la notation IFS de GuarantCo ne correspond pas à celle des sponsors en raison de l’absence de garanties sans équivoque, irrévocables et inconditionnelles sur le passif de GuarantCo.

GuarantCo est détenu indirectement par les agences de développement du Royaume-Uni (AA/négatif), de la Suisse (AAA/stable), des Pays-Bas (AAA/stable), de la Suède (AAA/stable) et de l’Australie (AAA/stable), par le biais du Private Infrastructure Development Group Trust (PIDG Trust ; 89 % fin 2018) et directement par la société néerlandaise de financement du développement (Nederlandse Financierings-Maatschappij voor Ontwikkelingslanden N.V. ou FMO ; AAA/stable ; 11 % fin 2018).

Les contributions en capital versé reçues par GuarantCo de la part de ses sponsors, les 40 millions de livres sterling de capital exigible fournis par le Royaume-Uni à travers le Département pour le Développement international (DfID) et le PIDG en janvier 2017, et les augmentations de capital prévues renforcent l’opinion de Fitch concernant l’engagement des sponsors envers l’entreprise.

La capitalisation fondée sur le risque de GuarantCo est évaluée « très forte », sur la base d’un ratio net pair – capital de 1,3x à la fin de 2018 (0,8x à la fin de 2017), dont un capital exigible apporté par le DfID et une facilité de crédit de 30 millions de dollars US fournie par la FMO. Fitch prévoit une augmentation du levier financier net pair – capital (avec un déclin de capitalisation) au fur et à mesure que GuarantCo étoffe son portefeuille de garanties.

L’entreprise fournit des garanties principalement pour des emprunts libellés en devises autres que le dollar US et émis par des entités classées spéculatives (portefeuille de garanties « à fréquence élevée, forte gravité » tel que défini par la méthodologie de notation des compagnies d’assurance établie par Fitch) et présente un risque de change. Fitch considère que ce risque est gérable en raison de la forte capitalisation de GuarantCo. Toutefois, il est possible que le risque de change augmente au fur et à mesure que l’entreprise se développe et Fitch continuera à surveiller son exposition.

Fitch évalue les pratiques de sélection et d’atténuation des risques de GuarantCo comme solides. GuarantCo possède une vaste expertise dans la gestion et la restructuration de projets de développement sous contraintes, un outil d’atténuation des risques essentiel. Les accords de recours établis avec les emprunteurs permettent à GuarantCo de recouvrir les pertes encourues en cas d’appel de la garantie. Dans le passé, GuarantCo a réalisé des recouvrements solides et n’a dû amortir aucune exposition depuis sa constitution.

Les investissement de GuarantCo sont gérés par PIMCO et Fidelity en deux portefeuilles séparés. Les deux portefeuilles sont constitués majoritairement d’obligations gouvernementales et d’émetteurs privés de courte durée, ainsi que d’instruments de marchés monétaires. L’exposition à des actifs à risque, tels que définis par Fitch, demeure négligeable et ne comprend que 1 million de dollars US en obligations de qualité inférieure. Fitch envisage le maintien du risque d’investissement de GuarantCo à un niveau faible.

L’objectif premier de GuarantCo est de soutenir les projets d’infrastructure et de promouvoir le développement des marchés de capitaux dans les pays à revenus faibles ou moyens. C’est pourquoi le niveau de rentabilité n’est pas une mesure clé du rendement de l’entreprise. Les propriétaires de GuarantCo s’attendent à ce que l’entreprise soit gérée sur une base commerciale et à réaliser un bénéfice modeste, mais cela est secondaire, l’accent étant placé sur la réalisation des objectifs de développement de l’entreprise.

Fitch considère GuarantCo comme un garant financier de petite envergure mais hautement spécialisé. Fitch classe le profil commercial de GuarantCo comme « modéré », comparé à ceux des garants financiers à l’échelle mondiale, reflétant l’évaluation de Fitch quant au positionnement concurrentiel de GuarantCo comme « très favorable », son profil d’activités et risque commercial comme « moins favorables » et sa diversification comme « favorable ».

SENSIBILITÉS DE NOTATION

La notation de GuarantCo serait dévaluée si la notation souveraine du Royaume-Uni venait être dévaluée de plus d’un point.

Une dévaluation pourrait également découler d’un affaiblissement de la situation du capital, mis en évidence par un ratio net pair – capital, y compris le capital exigible et une facilité de crédit, dépassant 3x.

Tout affaiblissement de l’engagement des sponsors de GuarantCo, peut-être en raison d’un changement de priorités des politiques gouvernementales, pourrait également engendrer une dévaluation.

Fitch estime un rehaussement de la notation de GuarantCo très peu probable.

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTPS://WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY’S PUBLIC WEB SITE AT WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA, AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH’S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE, AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF CONDUCT SECTION OF THIS SITE. DIRECTORS AND SHAREHOLDERS RELEVANT INTERESTS ARE AVAILABLE AT HTTPS://WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM/SITE/REGULATORY. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.

Copyright © 2019 by Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004. Telephone: 1-800-753-4824, (212) 908-0500. Fax: (212) 480-4435. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. In issuing and maintaining its ratings and in making other reports (including forecast information), Fitch relies on factual information it receives from issuers and underwriters and from other sources Fitch believes to be credible. Fitch conducts a reasonable investigation of the factual information relied upon by it in accordance with its ratings methodology, and obtains reasonable verification of that information from independent sources, to the extent such sources are available for a given security or in a given jurisdiction. The manner of Fitch’s factual investigation and the scope of the third-party verification it obtains will vary depending on the nature of the rated security and its issuer, the requirements and practices in the jurisdiction in which the rated security is offered and sold and/or the issuer is located, the availability and nature of relevant public information, access to the management of the issuer and its advisers, the availability of pre-existing third-party verifications such as audit reports, agreed-upon procedures letters, appraisals, actuarial reports, engineering reports, legal opinions and other reports provided by third parties, the availability of independent and competent third- party verification sources with respect to the particular security or in the particular jurisdiction of the issuer, and a variety of other factors. Users of Fitch’s ratings and reports should understand that neither an enhanced factual investigation nor any third-party verification can ensure that all of the information Fitch relies on in connection with a rating or a report will be accurate and complete.

Ultimately, the issuer and its advisers are responsible for the accuracy of the information they provide to Fitch and to the market in offering documents and other reports. In issuing its ratings and its reports, Fitch must rely on the work of experts, including independent auditors with respect to financial statements and attorneys with respect to legal and tax matters. Further, ratings and forecasts of financial and other information are inherently forward-looking and embody assumptions and predictions about future events that by their nature cannot be verified as facts. As a result, despite any verification of current facts, ratings and forecasts can be affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating or forecast was issued or affirmed.

The information in this report is provided « as is » without any representation or warranty of any kind, and Fitch does not represent or warrant that the report or any of its contents will meet any of the requirements of a recipient of the report. A Fitch rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security. This opinion and reports made by Fitch are based on established criteria and methodologies that Fitch is continuously evaluating and updating. Therefore, ratings and reports are the collective work product of Fitch and no individual, or group of individuals, is solely responsible for a rating or a report. The rating does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. Fitch is not engaged in the offer or sale of any security. All Fitch reports have shared authorship. Individuals identified in a Fitch report were involved in, but are not solely responsible for, the opinions stated therein. The individuals are named for contact purposes only. A report providing a Fitch rating is neither a prospectus nor a substitute for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with the sale of the securities. Ratings may be changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch. Fitch does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Ratings do not comment on the adequacy of market price, the suitability of any security for a particular investor, or the tax-exempt nature or taxability of payments made in respect to any security. Fitch receives fees from issuers, insurers, guarantors, other obligors, and underwriters for rating securities. Such fees generally vary from US$1,000 to US$750,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent) per issue. In certain cases, Fitch will rate all or a number of issues issued by a particular issuer, or insured or guaranteed by a particular insurer or guarantor, for a single annual fee. Such fees are expected to vary from US$10,000 to US$1,500,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent). The assignment, publication, or dissemination of a rating by Fitch shall not constitute a consent by Fitch to use its name as an expert in connection with any registration statement filed under the United States securities laws, the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 of the United Kingdom, or the securities laws of any particular jurisdiction. Due to the relative efficiency of electronic publishing and distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to three days earlier than to print subscribers.

For Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea only: Fitch Australia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services license (AFS license no. 337123) which authorizes it to provide credit ratings to wholesale clients only. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persons who are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 Fitch Ratings, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (the « NRSRO »). While certain of the NRSRO’s credit rating subsidiaries are listed on Item 3 of Form NRSRO and as such are authorized to issue credit ratings on behalf of the NRSRO (see https://www.fitchratings.com/site/regulatory), other credit rating subsidiaries are not listed on Form NRSRO (the « non-NRSROs ») and therefore credit ratings issued by those subsidiaries are not issued on behalf of the NRSRO. However, non-NRSRO personnel may participate in determining credit ratings issued by or on behalf of the NRSRO.

SOLICITATION STATUS

The ratings above were solicited and assigned or maintained at the request of the rated entity/issuer or a related third party. Any exceptions follow below.

ENDORSEMENT POLICY

Fitch’s approach to ratings endorsement so that ratings produced outside the EU may be used by regulated entities within the EU for regulatory purposes, pursuant to the terms of the EU Regulation with respect to credit rating agencies, can be found on the EU Regulatory Disclosures page. The endorsement status of all International ratings is provided within the entity summary page for each rated entity and in the transaction detail pages for all structured finance transactions on the Fitch website. These disclosures are updated on a daily basis.

FITCH UPDATES TERMS OF USE & PRIVACY POLICY

We have updated our Terms of Use and Privacy Policies which cover all of Fitch Group’s websites. Learn more.